AT face value, it is not in doubt that Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba, UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema’s running mate, has taken the political stage by storm after leaving the Patriotic Front and joining the opposition political party.
UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema and running mate Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba
In fact, UPND inner circles have a liking for Mr Mwamba because of his longer hand than Mr Hichilema, whatever that means.
But whether Mr Mwamba popularly known as GBM is the antidote the UPND had been looking for since formation in 2001 to swing the northern region vote and catapult the opposition party to power will either be proved or disapproved on Thursday.
On Thursday, Zambians vote to elect councillors, council chairmen, mayors, members of Parliament and a President and his running mate who automatically becomes Republican Vice President.
Since the formation of the UPND in 1998 by Anderson Mazoka after leaving the MMD, the opposition’s search for State power has not only been elusive but a fantasy.
The argument advanced in the past was that the UPND was a regional political organisation solely because of its dominance of Southern Province where Mr Mazoka, the founding party president came from.
The ascendance of Mr Hichilema to the UPND presidency following the death of Mr Mazoka in May 2006 did not help change the tribal image of the party.
Mr Hichilema merited the UPND presidency largely on account that he was a kinsman of his predecessor rather than being the best in what democracy could have determined at the time.
Following the death of Mr Mazoka, the UPND overlooked the serving party vice presidents then- Sakwiba Sikota (Lozi) and Patrick Chisanga (Bemba) for Mr Mr Hichilema, a Tonga, who in fact never held a party position before.
However, the UPND, since formation, has lost five presidential elections with Mr Mazoka, recording one defeat in an election he strongly believed he had won in 2001.
On the other hand, Mr Hchilema who has been battling with the stigma of ascending to the UPND presidency on the backdrop of regionalism has been a casualty of four electoral defeats including the 2015 presidential election which should have been an easy victory following the death of president Michael Sata of the Patriotic Front (PF).
In the 2006 presidential election, Mr Hichilema came third after Mr Levy Mwanawasa of the MMD and Mr Sata of the PF.
When Mr Mwanawasa died in office in 2008 and a presidential election was called, Mr Hichilema again ate humble pie coming third after Rupiah Banda of the MMD and Mr Sata of the PF.
Fortunes were again against Mr Hichilema who came third after Mr Sata and Mr Banda in the 2011 presidential election.
Mr Hichilema’s closeness to State House power was last year when he competed among others a new comer on the presidential political stage – Edgar Lungu.
The UPND leader lost the chance by coming second in the January 2015 presidential polls necessitated by the death of Mr Sata.
Despite all these presidential losses, the UPND has always maintained the Tonga land, Southern Province, as the stronghold for the political party.
For example, in 2001, out of 150 elective legislative positions, the UPND had 42, scooping all 19 Parliamentary seats in Southern Province with the others dotted in other nine provinces.
In the 2006, the UPND repeated their dominance of Southern Province by grabbing back the 19 parliamentary seats of the 27 that they won countrywide.
Apart from a by-election won by the Patriotic Front in 2012 in the Livingstone parliamentary seat, the UPND in the 2011 general elections again maintained their perfect score in Southern Province.
Despite this excellent show in Southern Province, the UPND has not endeared itself perfectly to other provincial regions of Zambia.
However, with the joining of Mr Mwamba, the fortunes of Mr Hichilema’s party seem to have changed, albeit untested in a political elective contest.
When Mr Mwamba resigned from the PF to join UPND, he resisted a by-election through court processes which could have proved whether he was a UPND factor in Northern Province.
Therefore this Thursday’s general election remains the sole litmus test for UPND to measure its political muscle in the regions considered no go areas for the ‘Tonga party’.
Mr GBM, coming from the northern region which had been rejecting Mr Hichilema and UPND is expected to bring to the opposition table the Bemba and other dominant tribes’ vote mostly spoken on the Copperbelt, Luapula, Northern and Muchinga provinces.
On his part, Mr Mwamba believes he has brought political power to UPND and what remains is the people’s confirmation vote on Thursday.
Following an amendment to the constitution in January this year, a presidential candidate amassing more than 50 percent of validly cast votes wins the election.
The amended constitution also among others has an automatic Vice President in a running mate.
If the President is incapacitated while in office, the Vice President automatically takes over State power without going for elections.
Therefore, If Mr Mwamba manages to swing the northern region vote and makes UPND win, then he will be making history as the first Vice President who cannot be fired since Zambia’s Independence in 1964.
But just as Mr Mwamba attracts multitude of northern region Zambians to his rallies, he also prompts scrutiny of his public conduct or lack of it.
Some political followers consider Mr Mwamba as the Donald Trump of Zambia.
Keen followers of United States of America politics know Mr Trump, the Republican Party presidential nominee as a no stranger to controversy since he embarked on his bid for the USA presidency.
On his Democratic Party rival, Hilary Clinton, M Trump warned American against trusting her.
“"If Hillary Clinton can't satisfy her husband what makes her think she can satisfy America?" Trump retweeted on April 16 before deleting it shortly after.
On the local scene, Mr Mwamba has drawn controversy in his public and family domestic conflict resolution.
Currently, he is battling to clear the air on his academic qualifications.
His gender based violence record against members of the public, including his wife remains a subject of debate whether he is the right man for the number two position in Zambia.
This prompts the question whether Mr Mwamba, popularly known as GBM is a plus or minus to Mr Hichilema’s quest to lead Zambia.
August 11, 2016 is only a few hours away when over six million Zambians vote.
The author is a freelance journalist.
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